Archive
Deepening the Model, but with Restrictions?
The chainsaw continues to set the agenda and anchor the economic program. With another fiscal surplus, the government continues to gain ground in cutting back, leading to a leaner state. In a more favorable international context, Argentine assets continue to gain value.
Argentina: Safe Haven and Land of Opportunities?
On a Monday when the world seemed to be ending, Argentina turned out to be a safe haven. No, it's not a joke. It was the best week in months for Argentine assets and for the government, which continues to capitalize on RIGI, the "chainsaw," tax cuts, and the apparent reaction of the economy.
Is the Energy That Argentina Needs Arriving?
A week full of investment announcements that could bring fresh dollars to a country struggling to stay afloat. Will they arrive before it drowns? The government keeps accelerating, while the market remains skeptical; both sides continue to be at odds in a week marked by external turbulence and government comments during a private meeting.
Hand-to-Hand with the Market, the Government Gains Ground
The tug-of-war over the dollar is on everyone’s lips, but fresh dollars are on no one’s. The government accelerates, but the market distrusts. While wages recover, the industry is destroyed. The government and the market, disassociated, set the pace week by week in a contest that seems to have no resolution in sight.
Returning to Roots to Start Gaining Traction
The agricultural sector is driving activity, the twin surpluses hark back to a past of strong growth, and meanwhile, a government keeps making a mix that the market doesn't buy. The strong peso appreciates while the market isn't convinced by the measures, bonds fall, and country risk rises.
A New Phase
The government buys cheap dollars and sells it for a profit. Meanwhile, we have the May Pact in July, a true reflection of what Argentina is. The government is betting that devaluation does not generate any added value and seeks to avoid it at all costs (even if it means recession).
Expectations Don't Feed Us
Activity Still Waiting for Recovery. Still No Definition of New Letters, in a Quieter Week the Dollar Continues to Rise While the Blow to Bonds and Country Risk Continues. It's Hard to Rise from the Ocean Floor Without Facts, Expectations Are Beginning to Run Out.
Goodbye Repos. Hello Monetary Regulation Bills
The government ends the repos through MRBs with interest borne by the Treasury instead of continuing to liquidate them via auctions as much of the market expected. Meanwhile, volatility remains present despite the approval of the Bases Law, Fiscal Package, Earnings, and declining inflation. Economic activity? Well, thank you.
The Foundation is Set, Now What?
Green, how I want you green. A great week for Argentine assets and for the government. After stormy weeks, we had a shower of good news: Basic Law; Swap with China; IMF; Inflation. What will be the government's agenda in the coming weeks with the Basic Law approved? The week left us with a lot to analyze and reflect on.
Push and Pull
Politics doing its thing to show the government what Argentina is. In an endless push and pull, politics sets the pace for a bleeding Argentina. The skyrocketing country risk, the BCRA no longer buying as it used to, and an industrial production trying to grow marked the data of the week.