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The Upside-Down World Has Arrived: Real Economy Surges While Financial Markets Struggle in Argentina
Argentina is a country of dichotomous, polarized, unpredictable, and sometimes erratic contradictions. Yet, this unpredictability is part of its unique appeal. While Argentina’s real economy shows strong growth, financial markets appear detached, reacting instead to the IMF's silence and uncertainty surrounding foreign exchange controls and the dollar.
Will the Anchors Stay Alive in 2025?
The crawling peg kicks off this Monday at a new pace, January’s financial surplus won’t be there, and every tax cut raises the question of how the revenue shortfall will be compensated. The peso curve restructuring remains a priority and, although still inverted, looks healthier by the day.
Argentina’s Good News Marathon Continues
2024 closed with historic twin surpluses. Will reducing export taxes boost trade while putting pressure on fiscal performance? For now, the government has achieved a major success with its debt swap, confirming that the country is growing at an accelerated pace. Just a bit longer until the new currency anchor makes its debut—and possibly a new Monetary Policy Rate, too?
The Spotlight on Argentina or Milei?
A challenging week for the Argentine financial market ended with a pause. However, this doesn’t alter the narrative of a historic fiscal and financial surplus for 2024, placing Argentina among a select group of nations. The crawling peg will adjust to 1% in a few weeks, and the exchange rate inertia will shift.
Commitments Are Honored, and Investors Reap the Benefits
With the payment of Bonares and Global bonds in hand, investors continue to bet on Argentina, placing full confidence in the government's direction for the new year. In a year that promises substantial growth, December appears to have ended on a high note.
The New Argentina Faces Fresh Challenges in 2025
As 2025 begins, the wave of enthusiasm for all things blue and white persists, positioning Argentina as a promising investment destination for the coming year. Despite operating under the outdated 2023 Budget, the country continues to defy expectations.
A Year to Remember: Historic Milestones and Challenges for Argentina
The market began in 2024 clouded with doubts about the government’s ability to stabilize the macroeconomy and secure political support to lead the country. Yet, as the year ends, markets eagerly buy into everything the government offers. Confidence has grown significantly among investors and business leaders, although there’s still much progress to be made. This transformation didn’t happen overnight—it required calculated decisions, steady communication, and results that restored market confidence. As we close the year, Argentina’s economy stands at a crossroads: the financial markets reflect optimism, while the real economy signals challenges that will demand attention in 2025.
More Growth, Less Poverty
In the land of good news and twin surpluses, every week surprises us with something new. Poverty falling below 40% is a clear indicator that the numbers can be improved quickly. This government’s historical adjustment is also accompanied by an unprecedented recovery. Will the upcoming growth be just as groundbreaking?
Welcome to the Land of Good News
Argentina demonstrates that it is more vibrant than ever, with the President now considered one of the most influential leaders in history. Time magazine has recognized him as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. A year into the liberal government’s tenure, the country is thriving, and expectations remain high.
Goodbye Spread, Hello European Union
Argentina’s financial landscape is shifting dramatically. The convergence of the MEP rate with the official exchange rate is a milestone—achieved for now. With the spread gone, attention shifts to new challenges. A trade agreement with the European Union (EU) opens up opportunities, marking geopolitics as a key priority. Meanwhile, the PAIS tax fades away, signaling another step in fiscal realignment.
Less Gap, More Future: Argentina Advances Towards a New Economic Phase
Do We Say Goodbye to the Financial Gap Without the PAIS Tax? Economic activity data consistently shows growth across multiple sectors in Argentina. With the elimination of bureaucratic hurdles, the Ministry of Deregulation is empowering citizens, leading to a surge in debureaucratization requests.
The Superpower of Intact Twin Surpluses
For the tenth consecutive month, the Argentine government has achieved twin surpluses, a positive trend that has now become a hallmark of economic stability. Fresh dollars continue flowing into the economy, and the Central Bank is actively purchasing foreign currency to bolster reserves. While economic activity saw a slight pause in September, revisions for earlier months show improvement, indicating that the last quarter of the year may bring substantial growth. Financial assets are soaring, and Argentina has become a key focus for international investors.